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Conditional Probability & Bayes' Theorem · Question 97 of 125

Question 97

HardOriginal question

A bag has 4 red and 3 black balls. A ball is drawn at random and put back into the bag together with 2 more balls of its colour. A second ball is then drawn. What is the probability that the second ball is red?

Options for question 97

Show the answer and explanation
CorrectNot quiteAnswer C

Correct answer: C

Explanation

  1. First red, with probability 47\frac{4}{7}: the bag then has 6 red balls of 9. First black, with probability 37\frac{3}{7}: 4 red balls of 9.

  2. 47×69+37×49=24+1263=47\frac{4}{7} \times \frac{6}{9} + \frac{3}{7} \times \frac{4}{9} = \frac{24 + 12}{63} = \frac{4}{7}.

Worth noting

23=69\frac{2}{3} = \frac{6}{9} assumes the first ball was red; it is black with probability 37\frac{3}{7}.

Concept
A bag changed by an earlier draw
Typical time
120 s
Your time
—
The rule this testsThe theorem of total probability
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Ten questions from Conditional Probability & Bayes' Theorem, at your own pace.

Practise this chapter →

Ten questions from Conditional Probability & Bayes' Theorem, at your own pace.