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Conditional Probability & Bayes' Theorem · Question 118 of 125

Question 118

HardOriginal question

In a test with 5 options per question, a student knows the answer with probability 35\frac{3}{5} and otherwise guesses. The student answers a question correctly. What is the probability that they knew the answer?

Options for question 118

Show the answer and explanation
CorrectNot quiteAnswer D

Correct answer: D

Explanation

  1. Let KK be knowing the answer and CC answering correctly: P(C)=35×1+25×15=1725P(C) = \frac{3}{5} \times 1 + \frac{2}{5} \times \frac{1}{5} = \frac{17}{25}.

  2. P(K∣C)=3/517/25=1517P(K \mid C) = \frac{3/5}{17/25} = \frac{15}{17}.

Worth noting

1725\frac{17}{25} is the chance of a correct answer, the denominator, not the answer itself.

Concept
Bayes' theorem
Typical time
120 s
Your time
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The rule this testsBayes' theorem
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Ten questions from Conditional Probability & Bayes' Theorem, at your own pace.

Practise this chapter →

Ten questions from Conditional Probability & Bayes' Theorem, at your own pace.