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Conditional Probability & Bayes' Theorem · Question 34 of 125

Question 34

EasyOriginal question

Only one of 5 keys opens a lock. The keys are tried one at a time in a random order, and a key that fails is set aside. What is the probability that the lock opens within the first three tries?

Options for question 34

Show the answer and explanation
CorrectNot quiteAnswer D

Correct answer: D

Explanation

  1. The lock stays shut through three tries with probability 45×34×23=25\frac{4}{5} \times \frac{3}{4} \times \frac{2}{3} = \frac{2}{5}.

  2. So it opens within three tries with probability 1−25=351 - \frac{2}{5} = \frac{3}{5}.

Worth noting

61125=1−(45)3\frac{61}{125} = 1 - \left(\frac{4}{5}\right)^{3} puts each failed key back, so the same key could be tried again.

Concept
At least one, through the complement of a chain of draws
Typical time
60 s
Your time
—
The rule this testsThe multiplication theorem
Practise this chapter →

Ten questions from Conditional Probability & Bayes' Theorem, at your own pace.

Practise this chapter →

Ten questions from Conditional Probability & Bayes' Theorem, at your own pace.