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Conditional Probability & Bayes' Theorem · Question 50 of 125

Question 50

HardOriginal question

A bag has 2 red and 3 white balls. A and B take turns to draw one ball each, without replacement, with A going first; whoever first draws a red ball wins. What is the probability that A wins?

Options for question 50

Show the answer and explanation
CorrectNot quiteAnswer C

Correct answer: C

Explanation

  1. A wins on the first draw with probability 25\frac{2}{5}, or on the third, after two white balls, with probability 35×24×23=15\frac{3}{5} \times \frac{2}{4} \times \frac{2}{3} = \frac{1}{5}.

  2. With only 3 white balls, a red one appears by the fourth draw, so A gets no fifth draw: 25+15=35\frac{2}{5} + \frac{1}{5} = \frac{3}{5}.

Worth noting

58\frac{5}{8} puts each ball back, as if the game could go on for ever; here the white balls run out.

Concept
The multiplication theorem for three draws or stages
Typical time
120 s
Your time
—
The rule this testsThe multiplication theorem
Practise this chapter →

Ten questions from Conditional Probability & Bayes' Theorem, at your own pace.

Practise this chapter →

Ten questions from Conditional Probability & Bayes' Theorem, at your own pace.