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Probability for CUET Maths

About 5 min to learn · 70 questions

Probability is part of Section A of CUET Maths, the section every candidate answers, whether you take Mathematics or Applied Mathematics. The questions use dice, coins, cards and choices you already know, so the marks go to whoever counts carefully. Learn each rule here, from sample spaces and the algebra of events to equally likely outcomes, counting with combinations, and the addition and complement rules, with worked examples, time-saving shortcuts and the traps CUET sets, then practise on free questions in CUET's own formats, each fully solved.

Syllabus area
Section A1
On this page · 10 sections
  1. 01Events and sample spaces
  2. 02The algebra of events
  3. 03The axiomatic approach
  4. 04Equally likely outcomes
  5. 05'A or B' and 'not A'
  6. 06How CUET asks this chapter
  7. 07Exam shortcuts
  8. 08Common mistakes
  9. 09Quick revision
  10. 10Check your understanding

Events and sample spaces

In a board game you need a 6 to move a piece out, and you throw two dice. How likely is at least one 6? Before any rule, we need two lists: everything that can happen, and the part of it we are interested in.

What is a sample space?

The sample space SS is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment, and an event is any part of it. Throwing two dice gives 6×6=366 \times 6 = 36 ordered pairs (a,b)(a, b), and the event "at least one 6" is the 11 pairs that contain a 6.

Kind of eventWhat it isTwo dice
Impossiblecontains no outcome, ∅\varnothingthe sum is 13
Surethe whole sample space SSthe sum is at most 12
Simpleexactly one outcomeboth dice show 6
Compoundmore than one outcomethe sum is 10

Example 1 · Counting a sample space

How many outcomes are there when a coin is tossed three times, and how many have exactly one tail?

  1. Each toss has 2 outcomes, so there are 2×2×2=82 \times 2 \times 2 = 8.

  2. Exactly one tail: HHTHHT, HTHHTH, THHTHH.

Answer

8 outcomes, 3 of them with exactly one tail.

Watch out

The choices of separate parts multiply; they never add. And when items are chosen together, with no order, count with combinations: two cards from 52 can be drawn together in 52C2{}^{52}C_2 ways, not 52×5152 \times 51.

The algebra of events

Events are sets, so they combine like sets.

EventIn wordsIn sets
A′A'not AASS minus AA
A∪BA \cup BAA or BB, or bothunion
A∩BA \cap BAA and BBintersection
A∩B′A \cap B'AA but not BBAA minus BB

Example 2 · Combining events

A die is thrown. AA is "a prime number" and BB is "an odd number". Find A∪BA \cup B, A∩BA \cap B, A∩B′A \cap B' and A′A'.

  1. A={2,3,5}A = \{2, 3, 5\} and B={1,3,5}B = \{1, 3, 5\}.

  2. Join, overlap, remove and complement.

Answer

A∪B={1,2,3,5}A \cup B = \{1, 2, 3, 5\}, A∩B={3,5}A \cap B = \{3, 5\}, A∩B′={2}A \cap B' = \{2\} and A′={1,4,6}A' = \{1, 4, 6\}.

What are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events?

Events are mutually exclusive if no outcome belongs to two of them, so they cannot happen together: A∩B=∅A \cap B = \varnothing. They are exhaustive if together they cover the whole sample space, so at least one of them always happens. An event and its complement are both.

The axiomatic approach

What rules does every probability follow?

Every probability lies between 0 and 1. The sure event has probability 1 and the impossible event 0. The probabilities of all the separate outcomes of a sample space add up to 1, and the probability of an event is the sum of the probabilities of its outcomes.

These rules work even when the outcomes are not equally likely.

Example 3 · A loaded die

A die is weighted so that a 6 is twice as likely as each other face, and the other five faces are equally likely. Find P(6)P(6).

  1. Let each of 1 to 5 have probability pp; then 6 has 2p2p.

  2. The probabilities add up to 1: 5p+2p=15p + 2p = 1, so p=17p = \frac{1}{7}.

Answer
P(6)=27P(6) = \frac{2}{7}

Odds are another way to say the same thing: odds of a:ba : b in favour mean aa favourable cases for every bb unfavourable ones, so the probability is aa+b\frac{a}{a + b}.

Equally likely outcomes

How do you find a probability when the outcomes are equally likely?

Count the outcomes in the event and divide by the number of outcomes in the sample space: P(E)=n(E)n(S)P(E) = \frac{n(E)}{n(S)}. This only works when every outcome is equally likely, which is why the 11 sums of two dice cannot each be given 111\frac{1}{11}.

Example 4 · Two dice

Two dice are thrown. What is the probability that the sum is 9?

  1. The sum is 9 for (3,6)(3, 6), (4,5)(4, 5), (5,4)(5, 4) and (6,3)(6, 3).

  2. That is 4 of the 36 equally likely outcomes.

Answer
436=19\frac{4}{36} = \frac{1}{9}

When items are chosen together, count both the event and the sample space with combinations.

Example 5 · Counting with combinations

A box has 4 red and 6 green balls. 3 are drawn together. What is the probability that all 3 are green?

  1. All choices: 10C3=120{}^{10}C_3 = 120. All-green choices: 6C3=20{}^{6}C_3 = 20.

  2. 20120\frac{20}{120}.

Answer
16\frac{1}{6}

Watch out

Balls drawn together are not put back, so (610)3\left(\frac{6}{10}\right)^3 is wrong here. Multiplying the same fraction is right only when each item goes back before the next draw.

'A or B' and 'not A'

What is the addition rule of probability?

For any two events, P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B). The overlap is subtracted because adding P(A)P(A) and P(B)P(B) counts it twice. For mutually exclusive events the overlap is empty, and the rule shrinks to P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B).

The complement rule

P(A′)=1−P(A)P(A') = 1 - P(A)

Example 6 · The addition rule

P(A)=0.5P(A) = 0.5, P(B)=0.4P(B) = 0.4 and P(A∩B)=0.2P(A \cap B) = 0.2. Find P(A∪B)P(A \cup B) and the probability that neither happens.

  1. P(A∪B)=0.5+0.4−0.2=0.7P(A \cup B) = 0.5 + 0.4 - 0.2 = 0.7.

  2. Neither is the complement of A∪BA \cup B: 1−0.71 - 0.7.

Answer

P(A∪B)=0.7P(A \cup B) = 0.7; neither: 0.3.

The complement is the fast way to answer "at least one". Back to the board game: no 6 on either die happens in 5×5=255 \times 5 = 25 of the 36 outcomes, so

P(at least one 6)=1−2536=1136P(\text{at least one 6}) = 1 - \frac{25}{36} = \frac{11}{36}

which is a little under one in three.

How CUET asks this chapter

  • Sample spaces and events: the number of outcomes, an impossible or sure event, or an event written out.
  • Algebra of events: A∪BA \cup B, A∩BA \cap B, A∩B′A \cap B' or a complement, often as match-the-list, and statements on mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.
  • Rules: which numbers can be probabilities, a missing probability, or odds.
  • Counting: dice, coins, cards, numbers, letters and balls drawn together.
  • Addition and complement: P(A∪B)P(A \cup B), "neither", "A but not B", or "at least one".

Exam shortcuts

  • P(E)=n(E)n(S)P(E) = \frac{n(E)}{n(S)} only for equally likely outcomes.
  • Two dice: the sum ss from 2 to 7 has s−1s - 1 ways; from 7 to 12, 13−s13 - s.
  • "At least one" is 1−P(none)1 - P(\text{none}).
  • P(A∩B′)=P(A)−P(A∩B)P(A \cap B') = P(A) - P(A \cap B).
  • Neither AA nor BB: 1−P(A∪B)1 - P(A \cup B).
  • Odds a:ba : b in favour: aa+b\frac{a}{a + b}.

Common mistakes

  • Treating unequal outcomes as equally likely, such as the sums of two dice or the number of heads.
  • Adding P(A)P(A) and P(B)P(B) without taking off the overlap.
  • Multiplying as if with replacement when items are drawn together.
  • Counting a repeated letter once, or counting 1 as a prime.
  • Confusing "mutually exclusive" with "exhaustive".

Quick revision

Events

  • SS: all outcomes; an event is a part of SS
  • Mutually exclusive: no overlap; exhaustive: cover SS

Rules

  • 0≤P(E)≤10 \le P(E) \le 1; outcome probabilities add to 1
  • Equally likely: P(E)=n(E)n(S)P(E) = \frac{n(E)}{n(S)}

Or and not

  • P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B)
  • P(A′)=1−P(A)P(A') = 1 - P(A); at least one = 1 − none

The last chapter of Section A is about choosing the best plan under limits: linear programming.

Next · 09Quick revision

Check your understanding

70 questions, grouped by type, easy to hard. Pick an answer and check it. The worked solution opens when you ask for it.

Events and sample spacesQ1 of 70Q1

Events and sample spaces

11 questions

How many outcomes are in the sample space when three dice are thrown?

Options for question 1

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AnswerC · 216216

  1. Multiply the numbers of outcomes of the separate parts; for a choice without order, use combinations.

  2. 6×6×6=2166 \times 6 \times 6 = 216.

Worth noting

6+6+6=186 + 6 + 6 = 18 adds the faces; the choices multiply.

How many outcomes are in the sample space when a coin is tossed and a die is thrown?

Options for question 2

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AnswerB · 1212

  1. Multiply the numbers of outcomes of the separate parts; for a choice without order, use combinations.

  2. 2×6=122 \times 6 = 12.

Worth noting

8 adds the outcomes, 2+62 + 6; they multiply.

A die is thrown. Which of these events is impossible?

Options for question 3

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AnswerD · A number greater than 6

  1. An impossible event contains no outcome of the sample space {1,2,3,4,5,6}\{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6\}.

  2. No face is greater than 6, so that event is ∅\varnothing. 'Less than 7' is every outcome, a sure event; 2 is an even prime; 3 and 6 are multiples of 3.

Worth noting

'A number less than 7' is the opposite case: it always happens, a sure event.

Two coins are tossed. How many outcomes does the event 'at least one head' contain?

Options for question 4

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AnswerC · 33

  1. The sample space is {HH,HT,TH,TT}\{HH, HT, TH, TT\}.

  2. At least one head: HHHH, HTHT and THTH, 3 outcomes. It has more than one outcome, so it is a compound event.

Worth noting

2 counts 'one head' and 'two heads' as two outcomes, but one head happens in two ways, HTHT and THTH.

How many outcomes are in the sample space when a coin is tossed 5 times?

Options for question 5

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AnswerD · 3232

  1. Each toss has 2 outcomes, and the tosses multiply.

  2. 25=322^5 = 32.

Worth noting

10 adds the outcomes, 2 five times over; they multiply.

2 people are chosen together from 5 for a committee. How many outcomes are in the sample space?

Options for question 6

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AnswerB · 1010

  1. A committee has no order, so count combinations: 5C2{}^{5}C_2.

  2. 5C2=5×42=10{}^{5}C_2 = \frac{5 \times 4}{2} = 10.

Worth noting

20 is 5×45 \times 4, which counts each pair twice, once in each order.

A die is thrown. Which of these is an elementary (simple) event?

Options for question 7

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AnswerD · Getting a 4

  1. An elementary event has exactly one outcome.

  2. 'Getting a 4' is {4}\{4\}. The others are {2,4,6}\{2, 4, 6\}, {1,2}\{1, 2\} and {2,3,5}\{2, 3, 5\}, compound events.

Worth noting

'Less than 3' sounds narrow but holds two outcomes, 1 and 2.

Two dice are thrown. Which of these is a sure event?

Options for question 8

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AnswerB · The sum is at least 2

  1. A sure event contains every outcome of the sample space.

  2. The smallest sum is 1+1=21 + 1 = 2, so the sum is always at least 2.

Worth noting

'At most 11' fails only for (6,6)(6, 6), so it is almost sure, but not sure.

Two dice are thrown. How many outcomes does the event 'the sum is 8' contain?

Options for question 9

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AnswerC · 55

  1. List the ordered pairs with sum 8.

  2. (2,6),(3,5),(4,4),(5,3),(6,2)(2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3), (6, 2): 5 outcomes.

Worth noting

4 counts (4,4)(4, 4) twice or misses it; (3,5)(3, 5) and (5,3)(5, 3) are different outcomes, (4,4)(4, 4) is one.

How many outcomes are in the sample space when two cards are drawn together from a pack of 52?

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AnswerA · 1,3261{,}326

  1. Multiply the numbers of outcomes of the separate parts; for a choice without order, use combinations.

  2. 52C2=52×512=1,326{}^{52}C_2 = \frac{52 \times 51}{2} = 1{,}326.

Worth noting

52×51=2,65252 \times 51 = 2{,}652 puts the two cards in an order; drawn together they have none, so each pair is counted twice.

A die is thrown twice and then a coin is tossed. How many outcomes are in the sample space?

Options for question 11

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AnswerC · 7272

  1. Multiply the outcomes of the three parts: 6×6×26 \times 6 \times 2.

  2. =72= 72.

Worth noting

14 adds 6+6+26 + 6 + 2; 36 forgets the coin.

The algebra of events

12 questions

A die is thrown. A={1,2,3,4}A = \{1, 2, 3, 4\} and B={3,4,5}B = \{3, 4, 5\}. How many outcomes are in 'A but not B'?

Options for question 12

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AnswerB · 22

  1. 'A but not B' is A∩B′A \cap B': the outcomes of AA that are not in BB.

  2. Removing 3 and 4 from AA leaves {1,2}\{1, 2\}: 2 outcomes.

Worth noting

5 counts A∪BA \cup B, every outcome in either event.

A die is thrown. AA is 'a multiple of 2' and BB is 'a multiple of 3'. How many outcomes are in A∪BA \cup B?

Options for question 13

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AnswerC · 44

  1. A={2,4,6}A = \{2, 4, 6\} and B={3,6}B = \{3, 6\}.

  2. A∪B={2,3,4,6}A \cup B = \{2, 3, 4, 6\}: 4 outcomes, with 6 counted once.

Worth noting

5 adds 3+23 + 2 and counts 6 twice.

A die is thrown. AA is 'an even number' and BB is 'a number greater than 3'. Match each event in List I with its outcomes in List II.

List IList II
A. A∪BA \cup BI. {2}\{2\}
B. A∩BA \cap BII. {2,4,5,6}\{2, 4, 5, 6\}
C. A∩B′A \cap B'III. {1,3,5}\{1, 3, 5\}
D. A′A'IV. {4,6}\{4, 6\}
Options for question 14

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AnswerB · A-II, B-IV, C-I, D-III

  1. A={2,4,6}A = \{2, 4, 6\} and B={4,5,6}B = \{4, 5, 6\}. 'A or B' joins them: {2,4,5,6}\{2, 4, 5, 6\}; 'A and B' keeps the common part: {4,6}\{4, 6\}.

  2. 'A but not B' removes BB's outcomes from AA: {2}\{2\}; 'not A' is the odd numbers {1,3,5}\{1, 3, 5\}.

A coin is tossed three times and EE is the event 'at least two heads'. What is E′E'?

Options for question 15

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AnswerD · At most one head

  1. E′E' is every outcome not in EE: fewer than two heads, that is 0 or 1 head.

  2. So E′E' is 'at most one head': {TTT,HTT,THT,TTH}\{TTT, HTT, THT, TTH\}.

Worth noting

'At least two tails' is the same event as 'at most one head' in three tosses, but 'exactly one head' leaves out TTTTTT.

A die is thrown. Which pair of events is mutually exclusive?

Options for question 16

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AnswerA · 'a number less than 3' and 'a number greater than 4'

  1. Mutually exclusive events have no outcome in common: they cannot happen together.

  2. {1,2}\{1, 2\} and {5,6}\{5, 6\} share nothing. The others share 2, then 3, then 3 again.

Worth noting

The chosen pair is mutually exclusive but not exhaustive: 3 and 4 belong to neither.

Read the two statements and choose the correct option.

I. When two dice are thrown, 'the sum is 7' and 'both dice show the same number' are mutually exclusive.

II. When two dice are thrown, 'the sum is even' and 'the sum is odd' are exhaustive.

Options for question 17

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AnswerC · Both I and II

  1. Equal numbers give an even sum, never 7, so the two events cannot happen together: I is true.

  2. Every sum is even or odd, so the two events cover the whole sample space: II is true.

Which of the following statements are true?

I. An event and its complement are mutually exclusive.

II. An event and its complement are exhaustive.

III. Any two mutually exclusive events are exhaustive.

IV. If A⊂BA \subset B, then A∩B=AA \cap B = A.

Options for question 18

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AnswerB · I, II and IV only

  1. EE and E′E' share no outcome (I) and together make up the whole sample space (II). If AA lies inside BB, their common part is AA itself (IV).

  2. III is false: on a die, {1}\{1\} and {2}\{2\} are mutually exclusive but leave out 3, 4, 5 and 6.

A coin is tossed three times. AA is 'the first toss is a head' and BB is 'exactly two heads'. How many outcomes are in A∩BA \cap B?

Options for question 19

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AnswerA · 22

  1. B={HHT,HTH,THH}B = \{HHT, HTH, THH\}.

  2. Of these, the ones that start with HH are HHTHHT and HTHHTH: 2 outcomes.

Worth noting

3 counts all of BB; 'and' keeps only what is also in AA.

A die is thrown. Which set of events is exhaustive?

Options for question 20

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AnswerC · {1,2},{2,3,4},{4,5,6}\{1, 2\}, \{2, 3, 4\}, \{4, 5, 6\}

  1. Events are exhaustive when together they cover the whole sample space {1,2,3,4,5,6}\{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6\}.

  2. {1,2}∪{2,3,4}∪{4,5,6}\{1, 2\} \cup \{2, 3, 4\} \cup \{4, 5, 6\} is everything; the others miss 6, 5, and 4 and 6.

Worth noting

Exhaustive events may overlap; these share 2 and 4 and are still exhaustive.

Read the two statements and choose the correct option.

I. (A∪B)′=A′∩B′(A \cup B)' = A' \cap B'.

II. (A∩B)′=A′∩B′(A \cap B)' = A' \cap B'.

Options for question 21

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AnswerA · Only I

  1. I: not 'A or B' means neither AA nor BB, that is A′∩B′A' \cap B'. True.

  2. II: not 'A and B' means at least one fails, which is A′∪B′A' \cup B', not A′∩B′A' \cap B'. False.

Worth noting

Taking a complement turns ∪\cup into ∩\cap and ∩\cap into ∪\cup.

Which describes the event 'exactly one of AA and BB happens'?

Options for question 22

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AnswerB · (A∩B′)∪(A′∩B)(A \cap B') \cup (A' \cap B)

  1. Exactly one: either AA without BB, A∩B′A \cap B', or BB without AA, A′∩BA' \cap B.

  2. Join the two: (A∩B′)∪(A′∩B)(A \cap B') \cup (A' \cap B).

Worth noting

A∪BA \cup B also includes both happening together.

A card is drawn from a pack of 52. Which pair of events is mutually exclusive?

Options for question 23

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AnswerD · 'a king' and 'a queen'

  1. Mutually exclusive events cannot happen together: no card is in both.

  2. No card is both a king and a queen. The king of hearts, every heart, and the face cards of spades break the other pairs.

Worth noting

'A king' and 'a heart' share the king of hearts.

The rules every probability follows

10 questions

Which of these cannot be the probability of an event?

Options for question 24

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AnswerD · 76\frac{7}{6}

  1. A probability always lies between 0 and 1, both included.

  2. 76\frac{7}{6} is more than 1, so it cannot be a probability. 0 is the probability of an impossible event.

A sample space has four outcomes with probabilities 0.1, 0.3, pp and 0.2. What is pp?

Options for question 25

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AnswerA · 0.40.4

  1. The probabilities of all the outcomes of a sample space add up to 1.

  2. 0.1+0.3+p+0.2=10.1 + 0.3 + p + 0.2 = 1, so p=0.4p = 0.4.

Worth noting

0.6 is the sum of the three given values, not what is missing from 1.

The odds in favour of an event are 3 : 5. What is its probability?

Options for question 26

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AnswerA · 38\frac{3}{8}

  1. Odds 3 : 5 mean 3 favourable cases for every 5 unfavourable ones, 8 in all.

  2. So the probability is 38\frac{3}{8}.

Worth noting

35\frac{3}{5} divides by the unfavourable cases instead of by all of them.

Assertion (A): No event can have probability 1.2.

Reason (R): The probability of every event lies between 0 and 1.

Options for question 27

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AnswerA · Both A and R are true, and R is the correct explanation of A.

  1. R is one of the rules every probability obeys: 0≤P(E)≤10 \le P(E) \le 1.

  2. 1.2 is more than 1, so A is true, and it is true because of R.

The odds against an event are 7 : 2. What is its probability?

Options for question 28

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AnswerA · 29\frac{2}{9}

  1. Odds against 7 : 2 mean 7 unfavourable cases for every 2 favourable ones, 9 in all.

  2. So the probability that it happens is 29\frac{2}{9}.

Worth noting

79\frac{7}{9} is the probability that it does not happen.

A sample space has three outcomes ω1\omega_1, ω2\omega_2, ω3\omega_3. Which assignment of probabilities to them, in that order, is valid?

Options for question 29

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AnswerD · 0.2, 0.5, 0.3

  1. A valid assignment gives every outcome a probability from 0 to 1, and the probabilities add up to 1.

  2. 0.2 + 0.5 + 0.3 = 1. The others add to 1.2, have a negative value, or add to 0.9.

Worth noting

0.6, −0.1, 0.5 adds up to 1, but no probability can be negative.

Which of the following statements are true?

I. P(∅)=0P(\varnothing) = 0.

II. P(S)=1P(S) = 1, where SS is the sample space.

III. If A⊂BA \subset B, then P(A)≤P(B)P(A) \le P(B).

IV. P(A)+P(B)≤1P(A) + P(B) \le 1 for any two events.

Options for question 30

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AnswerC · I, II and III only

  1. I and II are axioms. III: BB contains every outcome of AA and possibly more.

  2. IV is false: on a die, 'even' has probability 12\frac{1}{2} and 'less than 5' has 23\frac{2}{3}, which add to more than 1, since the events overlap.

Worth noting

IV holds only for mutually exclusive events.

AA and BB are mutually exclusive and exhaustive, and P(A)=2P(B)P(A) = 2P(B). What is P(A)P(A)?

Options for question 31

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AnswerD · 23\frac{2}{3}

  1. Mutually exclusive and exhaustive: P(A)+P(B)=1P(A) + P(B) = 1.

  2. 2P(B)+P(B)=12P(B) + P(B) = 1, so P(B)=13P(B) = \frac{1}{3} and P(A)=23P(A) = \frac{2}{3}.

Worth noting

13\frac{1}{3} is P(B)P(B), the smaller of the two.

A sample space has three outcomes with P(ω1)=2P(ω2)=3P(ω3)P(\omega_1) = 2P(\omega_2) = 3P(\omega_3). What is P(ω1)P(\omega_1)?

Options for question 32

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AnswerD · 611\frac{6}{11}

  1. Write P(ω1)=pP(\omega_1) = p; then P(ω2)=p2P(\omega_2) = \frac{p}{2} and P(ω3)=p3P(\omega_3) = \frac{p}{3}.

  2. p+p2+p3=11p6=1p + \frac{p}{2} + \frac{p}{3} = \frac{11p}{6} = 1, so p=611p = \frac{6}{11}.

Worth noting

311\frac{3}{11} is P(ω2)P(\omega_2).

P(A)=0.6P(A) = 0.6 and P(B)=0.7P(B) = 0.7. What is the least possible value of P(A∩B)P(A \cap B)?

Options for question 33

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AnswerB · 0.30.3

  1. P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)=1.3−P(A∩B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B) = 1.3 - P(A \cap B).

  2. P(A∪B)≤1P(A \cup B) \le 1, so P(A∩B)≥0.3P(A \cap B) \ge 0.3: the events must overlap by at least 0.3.

Worth noting

0 would need P(A∪B)=1.3P(A \cup B) = 1.3, more than 1; 0.42 assumes the events are independent, which is not given.

Equally likely outcomes

21 questions

Two fair dice are thrown. What is the probability that the sum is 7?

Options for question 34

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AnswerC · 16\frac{1}{6}

  1. There are 6×6=366 \times 6 = 36 equally likely outcomes.

  2. The sum is 7 in 6 of them: (1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3), (5, 2), (6, 1). So the probability is 636=16\frac{6}{36} = \frac{1}{6}.

Worth noting

The 11 possible sums from 2 to 12 are not equally likely, so 111\frac{1}{11} is wrong.

3 fair coins are tossed. What is the probability of getting exactly two heads?

Options for question 35

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AnswerC · 38\frac{3}{8}

  1. There are 23=82^{3} = 8 equally likely outcomes.

  2. 3 of them have exactly two heads, so the probability is 38=38\frac{3}{8} = \frac{3}{8}.

Worth noting

Counting 44 outcomes by the number of heads treats them as equally likely, and they are not.

A number is picked at random from 1 to 20. What is the probability that it is a prime number?

Options for question 36

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AnswerA · 25\frac{2}{5}

  1. The primes up to 20 are 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17 and 19: 8 numbers.

  2. The probability is 820=25\frac{8}{20} = \frac{2}{5}.

Worth noting

920\frac{9}{20} counts 1 as a prime; it is not.

A bag has 5 red and 3 blue balls. 2 balls are drawn at random together. What is the probability that both are red?

Options for question 37

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AnswerB · 514\frac{5}{14}

  1. Ways to choose 2 of the 8 balls: 8C2=28{}^{8}C_2 = 28. Ways to choose 2 of the 5 red: 5C2=10{}^{5}C_2 = 10.

  2. So the probability is 1028=514\frac{10}{28} = \frac{5}{14}.

Worth noting

2564=(58)2\frac{25}{64} = \left(\frac{5}{8}\right)^2 multiplies as if the first ball went back before the second; drawn together, it does not.

Two fair dice are thrown. What is the probability that both dice show the same number?

Options for question 38

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AnswerB · 16\frac{1}{6}

  1. There are 36 equally likely ordered pairs.

  2. The doublets are (1,1)(1, 1) to (6,6)(6, 6): 6 of 36, so 636=16\frac{6}{36} = \frac{1}{6}.

Worth noting

136\frac{1}{36} is one particular doublet, such as (6,6)(6, 6).

A card is drawn from a well-shuffled pack of 52. What is the probability that it is a face card (king, queen or jack)?

Options for question 39

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AnswerB · 313\frac{3}{13}

  1. There are 3 face cards in each of 4 suits: 12 cards.

  2. 1252=313\frac{12}{52} = \frac{3}{13}.

Worth noting

413\frac{4}{13} counts aces as face cards too.

A number is chosen at random from 1 to 50. What is the probability that it is a perfect square?

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AnswerC · 750\frac{7}{50}

  1. The squares up to 50 are 1, 4, 9, 16, 25, 36, 49: 7 numbers.

  2. 750\frac{7}{50}.

Worth noting

325\frac{3}{25} misses 1, which is 121^{2}.

A letter is chosen at random from the word PROBABILITY. What is the probability that it is a B?

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AnswerD · 211\frac{2}{11}

  1. The word has 11 letters, and B appears twice.

  2. 211\frac{2}{11}.

Worth noting

29\frac{2}{9} counts the 9 different letters instead of all 11 positions.

The letters C, A and T are arranged in a row at random. What is the probability that they spell CAT?

Options for question 42

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AnswerB · 16\frac{1}{6}

  1. There are 3!=63! = 6 equally likely arrangements.

  2. Only one of them is CAT: 16\frac{1}{6}.

Worth noting

127\frac{1}{27} allows a letter to be used more than once; each is used exactly once.

Two fair dice are thrown. What is the probability that the product of the numbers is even?

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AnswerB · 34\frac{3}{4}

  1. List the 36 equally likely ordered pairs (a,b)(a, b).

  2. The product is odd only when both are odd, 3×3=93 \times 3 = 9 pairs, so it is even in 36−9=2736 - 9 = 27: 2736=34\frac{27}{36} = \frac{3}{4}.

Worth noting

14\frac{1}{4} is the probability that it does not happen.

A letter is chosen at random from the word EXAMINATION. What is the probability that it is a vowel?

Options for question 44

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AnswerD · 611\frac{6}{11}

  1. The word has 11 letters: E, A, I, A, I, O are vowels, 6 of them, counting repeats.

  2. Each position is equally likely, so the probability is 611\frac{6}{11}.

Worth noting

48=12\frac{4}{8} = \frac{1}{2} counts different letters only; a repeated letter is chosen more often.

4 fair coins are tossed. What is the probability of getting at most one head?

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AnswerD · 516\frac{5}{16}

  1. There are 24=162^{4} = 16 equally likely outcomes.

  2. 5 of them have at most one head, so the probability is 516=516\frac{5}{16} = \frac{5}{16}.

Worth noting

Counting 55 outcomes by the number of heads treats them as equally likely, and they are not.

A bag has 6 white and 4 black balls. 3 are drawn at random together. What is the probability that exactly 2 are white?

Options for question 46

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AnswerD · 12\frac{1}{2}

  1. Total ways: 10C3=120{}^{10}C_3 = 120. Favourable: 6C2×4C1=15×4=60{}^{6}C_2 \times {}^{4}C_1 = 15 \times 4 = 60.

  2. 60120=12\frac{60}{120} = \frac{1}{2}.

Worth noting

18\frac{1}{8} chooses the 2 white balls but forgets the third, black one.

Two fair dice are thrown. What is the probability that the sum is a prime number?

Options for question 47

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AnswerC · 512\frac{5}{12}

  1. There are 36 equally likely ordered pairs.

  2. Prime sums 2, 3, 5, 7, 11 occur in 1+2+4+6+2=151 + 2 + 4 + 6 + 2 = 15 ways: 1536=512\frac{15}{36} = \frac{5}{12}.

Worth noting

Forgetting 2, the one even prime, loses the pair (1,1)(1, 1).

A card is drawn from a well-shuffled pack of 52. What is the probability that it is a black card but not a king?

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AnswerA · 613\frac{6}{13}

  1. There are 26 black cards, 2 of them kings.

  2. 26−252=2452=613\frac{26 - 2}{52} = \frac{24}{52} = \frac{6}{13}.

Worth noting

1126\frac{11}{26} removes all 4 kings from the black cards; only 2 kings are black.

3 students are chosen at random from 5 boys and 4 girls. What is the probability that all 3 are girls?

Options for question 49

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AnswerC · 121\frac{1}{21}

  1. Total ways: 9C3=84{}^{9}C_3 = 84. All girls: 4C3=4{}^{4}C_3 = 4.

  2. 484=121\frac{4}{84} = \frac{1}{21}.

Worth noting

49\frac{4}{9} is the chance that one chosen student is a girl.

Two fair dice are thrown. What is the probability that the difference of the numbers is 2?

Options for question 50

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AnswerA · 29\frac{2}{9}

  1. List the 36 equally likely ordered pairs (a,b)(a, b).

  2. The difference is 2 for (1, 3), (2, 4), (3, 5), (4, 6) and the same four reversed: 8 pairs, so 836=29\frac{8}{36} = \frac{2}{9}.

Worth noting

79\frac{7}{9} is the probability that it does not happen.

A leap year is chosen at random. What is the probability that it has 53 Sundays?

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AnswerC · 27\frac{2}{7}

  1. 366 days are 52 full weeks plus 2 extra days, which are consecutive.

  2. The 7 equally likely pairs are (Sun, Mon), (Mon, Tue), …, (Sat, Sun); 2 of them contain a Sunday, so the probability is 27\frac{2}{7}.

Worth noting

17\frac{1}{7} is the answer for a non-leap year, which has only 1 extra day.

Two different numbers are chosen at random from 1 to 9. What is the probability that their sum is even?

Options for question 52

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AnswerB · 49\frac{4}{9}

  1. An even sum needs both odd or both even: 5C2+4C2=10+6=16{}^{5}C_2 + {}^{4}C_2 = 10 + 6 = 16 ways.

  2. Out of 9C2=36{}^{9}C_2 = 36, so the probability is 1636=49\frac{16}{36} = \frac{4}{9}.

Worth noting

Two different numbers cannot be the same number twice, so the chance is not exactly one half.

Two cards are drawn together from a pack of 52. What is the probability that both are aces?

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AnswerA · 1221\frac{1}{221}

  1. Ways to choose 2 of the 4 aces: 4C2=6{}^{4}C_2 = 6; ways to choose any 2 cards: 52C2=1,326{}^{52}C_2 = 1{,}326.

  2. The probability is 61,326=1221\frac{6}{1{,}326} = \frac{1}{221}.

Worth noting

1169=(452)2\frac{1}{169} = \left(\frac{4}{52}\right)^2 assumes the first card goes back before the second is drawn.

Two different numbers are chosen at random from 1 to 10. What is the probability that their product is even?

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AnswerD · 79\frac{7}{9}

  1. The product is odd only when both numbers are odd: 5C2=10{}^{5}C_2 = 10 of the 10C2=45{}^{10}C_2 = 45 pairs.

  2. So it is even with probability 1−1045=791 - \frac{10}{45} = \frac{7}{9}.

Worth noting

34\frac{3}{4} is the answer when the same number may be chosen twice, as with two dice.

The addition and complement rules

16 questions

P(A)=12P(A) = \frac{1}{2}, P(B)=13P(B) = \frac{1}{3} and P(A∩B)=16P(A \cap B) = \frac{1}{6}. What is P(A∪B)P(A \cup B)?

Options for question 55

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AnswerC · 23\frac{2}{3}

  1. P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B).

  2. =12+13−16=3+2−16=23= \frac{1}{2} + \frac{1}{3} - \frac{1}{6} = \frac{3 + 2 - 1}{6} = \frac{2}{3}.

Worth noting

56\frac{5}{6} adds without taking off the overlap, which is then counted twice.

The probability that it rains tomorrow is 38\frac{3}{8}. What is the probability that it does not rain?

Options for question 56

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AnswerD · 58\frac{5}{8}

  1. An event and its complement together are certain: P(E)+P(E′)=1P(E) + P(E') = 1.

  2. So P(E′)=1−38=58P(E') = 1 - \frac{3}{8} = \frac{5}{8}.

AA and BB are mutually exclusive, P(A)=0.35P(A) = 0.35 and P(A∪B)=0.8P(A \cup B) = 0.8. What is P(B)P(B)?

Options for question 57

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AnswerB · 0.450.45

  1. For mutually exclusive events, P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B).

  2. 0.8=0.35+P(B)0.8 = 0.35 + P(B), so P(B)=0.45P(B) = 0.45.

Worth noting

0.35 assumes P(B)=P(A)P(B) = P(A); nothing says the two are equally likely.

4 fair coins are tossed. What is the probability of getting at least one head?

Options for question 58

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AnswerD · 1516\frac{15}{16}

  1. 'At least one head' is the complement of 'no heads', which is TTTTTTTT alone: 116\frac{1}{16}.

  2. 1−116=15161 - \frac{1}{16} = \frac{15}{16}.

Worth noting

116\frac{1}{16} is the probability of no heads, the complement.

Read the two statements and choose the correct option.

I. P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) for any two events AA and BB.

II. P(A′)=1−P(A)P(A') = 1 - P(A) for any event AA.

Options for question 59

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AnswerB · Only II

  1. I is false: in general P(A∩B)P(A \cap B) must be subtracted; the plain sum holds only for mutually exclusive events.

  2. II is true: AA and A′A' are mutually exclusive and exhaustive, so P(A)+P(A′)=1P(A) + P(A') = 1.

P(A)=0.42P(A) = 0.42, P(B)=0.48P(B) = 0.48 and P(A∩B)=0.16P(A \cap B) = 0.16. What is P(A∪B)P(A \cup B)?

Options for question 60

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AnswerC · 0.740.74

  1. P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B).

  2. 0.42+0.48−0.16=0.740.42 + 0.48 - 0.16 = 0.74.

Worth noting

0.9 adds the two without removing the overlap.

P(A)=0.6P(A) = 0.6, P(B)=0.5P(B) = 0.5 and P(A∩B)=0.3P(A \cap B) = 0.3. What is the probability that neither AA nor BB happens?

Options for question 61

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AnswerB · 0.20.2

  1. P(A∪B)=0.6+0.5−0.3=0.8P(A \cup B) = 0.6 + 0.5 - 0.3 = 0.8.

  2. Neither means the complement of A∪BA \cup B: 1−0.8=0.21 - 0.8 = 0.2.

Worth noting

0.8 is the probability that at least one happens; neither is what is left.

P(A)=0.7P(A) = 0.7, P(B)=0.4P(B) = 0.4 and P(A∪B)=0.85P(A \cup B) = 0.85. What is P(A∩B)P(A \cap B)?

Options for question 62

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AnswerA · 0.250.25

  1. P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B), so P(A∩B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∪B)P(A \cap B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cup B).

  2. =0.7+0.4−0.85=0.25= 0.7 + 0.4 - 0.85 = 0.25.

Worth noting

0.28 multiplies 0.7×0.40.7 \times 0.4, which is right only for independent events; nothing here says they are.

A number is chosen at random from 1 to 30. What is the probability that it is divisible by 3 or 5?

Options for question 63

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AnswerB · 715\frac{7}{15}

  1. Divisible by 3: 10; by 5: 6; by both, that is by 15: 2.

  2. By the addition rule, 10+6−2=1410 + 6 - 2 = 14, so the probability is 1430=715\frac{14}{30} = \frac{7}{15}.

Worth noting

1630\frac{16}{30} counts 15 and 30 twice.

A card is drawn at random from a well-shuffled pack of 52. What is the probability that it is a king or a heart?

Options for question 64

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AnswerA · 413\frac{4}{13}

  1. Kings: 4; hearts: 13; the king of hearts is in both.

  2. 4+13−1=164 + 13 - 1 = 16, so the probability is 1652=413\frac{16}{52} = \frac{4}{13}.

Worth noting

1752\frac{17}{52} counts the king of hearts twice.

A committee of 3 is chosen at random from 4 men and 3 women. What is the probability that it has at least one woman?

Options for question 65

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AnswerD · 3135\frac{31}{35}

  1. Use the complement: no woman means all 3 are men, in 4C3=4{}^{4}C_3 = 4 of the 7C3=35{}^{7}C_3 = 35 ways.

  2. So the probability is 1−435=31351 - \frac{4}{35} = \frac{31}{35}.

Worth noting

435\frac{4}{35} is the chance of no woman at all.

Assertion (A): If AA and BB are mutually exclusive, P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B).

Reason (R): Mutually exclusive events have P(A∩B)=0P(A \cap B) = 0.

Options for question 66

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AnswerA · Both A and R are true, and R is the correct explanation of A.

  1. In P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B), the last term is 0 for mutually exclusive events.

  2. So R is true and explains A.

A number is chosen at random from 1 to 100. What is the probability that it is divisible by 4 or 6?

Options for question 67

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AnswerA · 33100\frac{33}{100}

  1. Divisible by 4: 25. By 6: 16. By both, that is by 12: 8.

  2. 25+16−8100=33100\frac{25 + 16 - 8}{100} = \frac{33}{100}.

Worth noting

41100\frac{41}{100} does not remove the multiples of 12, counted in both.

Two dice are thrown. What is the probability of a doublet or a sum of 8?

Options for question 68

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AnswerA · 518\frac{5}{18}

  1. Doublets: 6 outcomes. Sum 8: 5 outcomes. Both: (4,4)(4, 4) only.

  2. 6+5−136=1036=518\frac{6 + 5 - 1}{36} = \frac{10}{36} = \frac{5}{18}.

Worth noting

1136\frac{11}{36} counts (4,4)(4, 4) twice, once in each event.

P(A)=0.6P(A) = 0.6, P(B)=0.3P(B) = 0.3 and P(A∩B)=0.1P(A \cap B) = 0.1. What is the probability that exactly one of AA and BB happens?

Options for question 69

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AnswerA · 0.70.7

  1. Exactly one is P(A∪B)−P(A∩B)P(A \cup B) - P(A \cap B), that is P(A)+P(B)−2P(A∩B)P(A) + P(B) - 2P(A \cap B).

  2. 0.6+0.3−0.2=0.70.6 + 0.3 - 0.2 = 0.7.

Worth noting

0.8 is P(A∪B)P(A \cup B), which also counts both happening.

P(A)=13P(A) = \frac{1}{3}, P(B)=14P(B) = \frac{1}{4} and P(A∩B)=112P(A \cap B) = \frac{1}{12}. What is P(A∩B′)P(A \cap B'), the probability of AA but not BB?

Options for question 70

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AnswerC · 14\frac{1}{4}

  1. AA splits into the part inside BB and the part outside it: P(A)=P(A∩B)+P(A∩B′)P(A) = P(A \cap B) + P(A \cap B').

  2. So P(A∩B′)=13−112=14P(A \cap B') = \frac{1}{3} - \frac{1}{12} = \frac{1}{4}.

Worth noting

12\frac{1}{2} is P(A∪B)P(A \cup B), every outcome in either event.

NTA's Mathematics / Applied Mathematics syllabus has three sections: Section A1, which every candidate answers, then Section B1 (Mathematics) or Section B2 (Applied Mathematics), of which a candidate answers one. Each section lists units and topics but no chapters, so the chapters here are ours. Where both B sections list a topic that Section A also lists, its questions sit once, in Section A.